Adam Robinson on Investing
Economic Snapshot Indicators:
- Interest Rate Direction: Ratio of copper to gold which is a leading indicator of the 10 year yields (DBB / GLD)
- What Bond Traders Think: ratio of investment grade credit spreads to 10 year yields leads the stock market (LQD / IEF)
- State of Consumer Spending: consumer discretionary to consumer staples (RCD/RHS or XLY / XLP)
Gold is simply shiny coper that you have to store. It is an inverse play in interest rates and not really on inflation or a store of value.
If things don’t make sense or seem strange, its your model of thinking that needs to be changed! The world always makes sense. Don’t just dismiss things that don’t fit your model.
What would I need to see to tell me I was wrong. What would I need to see to be mistaken. Be careful of the internet since it is a confirmation bias machine.
Avoid confirmation bias by creating both a thesis and at the same time what you would need to see to change that view. That is, “what would I need to see to change my view?”
Calibrate correctly around risk
Keep information to a minimum. Keep things simple. Boil it down. If you need so many pages and spreadsheets to prove your point, then your playing into confirmation basis.